Global Warming: Nature not Man Science, History and Debate Disregarded Harry A. Taylor, Melbourne Fl December 2009 2 Global Warming: Nature not Man Contents 1. Preface 2.
Authors and Books Reviewed 3. Global Warming Crusade 4. Climate Variables 5.
Weather and Climate 6. Stimuli Affecting Climate 7. Concern for Science 8.
Summary of Skeptical Views 9. Personal Comments 10. About the Author 3 Figures 1.
Atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa Observatory courtesy of Spencer 2. Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index courtesy of NASA-GISS 3. UAH Globally Averaged Satellite-Based Temperature 1979-2009 courtesy of D 9Aleo 4.
Lower Mean Tropospheric Temperature and CO2 Concentrations 1978-2009 courtesy of Alan Siddons/RSS AMU 5. Cycles of Glacials (grey) and Interglacials (black) over 400,000 Years courtesy of Plimer 6. The last 1000 years of Earth Temperatures from Tree Rings, Ice Cores, and Thermometers courtesy of Singer and Avery 7.
Global sea level over the last 450,000 years courtesy of Plimer 8. 400 Years of Sunspot Observations courtesy of Wikipedia 9. Arctic Temperatures Correlate with Solar Activity, not CO2 courtesy of Singer and Avery 10.
Cosmic Rays Produce Shower of Secondary Particles courtesy of Corsika calculations by Fabian Schmidt, Leeds U. 11. Cloud Cover and Cosmic Ray Correlation courtesy of Svensmark and Calder 4 Global Warming: Nature not Man 1.
Preface Over decades a world wide movement unparalleled in scope and intensity, has been mobilized to confront the perceived threat of future climate disaster. The asserted threat is that man 9s use of energy is forcing the temperature of the Earth to increase, unnaturally . The ... more.
argument is not really about cwarming d which has come and gone over all of history.
No, the argument is: cis warming man-made? d It has been alleged that man-made industrial emissions of CO2 are increasingly trapping heat which would otherwise escape from our atmosphere, thus causing global warming. I will refer to this premise of cman-made global warming d as MMGW The seeds of fear have been sown, namely that such heating will result in sea-level rise, flooding of coastlines, interference with agriculture, and even the spread of disease.
Extraordinary political policies for regulating worldwide power usage are aggressively promoted in a crusade to save the planet. Critics argue that such policies have potential for negative economic impacts, and will have no significant effect upon global climate. Skeptical scientists assert that relatively modest increases and decreases seen in global temperature ( T ) over the past century result from natural processes, and that possible influences of industrial emissions are greatly exaggerated.
Many scientists are dismayed, for they cannot reconcile readily available scientific observations and theory with the strident claims of forthcoming catastrophe. Also, they cannot accept the repeated pronouncements that call scientists agree d&. that climate change is a threat and that man can regulate it.
Though many reputable researchers have attempted to question the notion of MMGW as unfounded alarmism, their views have been generally disregarded, and sometimes suppressed. The cpolitical incorrectness d of even questioning the doctrine of man 9s destruction of the climate has naturally caused many scientists to hesitate to speak out. Normally, it would be expected that a thorough debate of the issue, including a fair hearing of the best of scientific inputs would have long since been held and publicized.
But that has not happened! Even though the U.S. President Obama has personally declared that cthe Debate is Over &scientists agree&and it is now time to move forward on legislation to cope with the threat of climate change.
d &no meaningful cDebates d have occurred ! Instead, some activist scientists, the media, and crusading politicians have persisted in presenting disaster scenarios. The short-hand buzz words c Global Warming d have permeated global society, invading all areas of communication.
5 Fortunately a very significant number of scientists have courageously spoken, in public and in print. Some have identified errors in observations and unfounded interpretations of data. At least one highly placed scientist has been forthcoming in characterizing particular representations of climate change as fraudulent.
Many have published refereed articles in scientific journals and also written very responsible and informative books, discounting the alarms of the activists. Yet serious opposing views are generally not widely publicized, and the public is not well informed. Less than six months prior to President Obama 9s proclamation, on June 4 2009 ex- Presidential Candidate, Ron Paul made a presentation to the House of Representatives.
It was an appeal to defeat passage of Cap and Trade legislation . Paul submitted a petition signed by over thirty thousand scientists , nearly one third of which had PhD degrees. The Petition stated cWe urge the United States government to reject the global warming agreement&There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane or other greenhouse gasses is, or will cause, disruption of the Earth 9s climate.
d I am a research scientist and have published many refereed journal articles. I have encountered and successfully confronted the degradation of science by shoddy research and even fraud. I am thus naturally intrigued by what I perceive to be unjustified perpetuation of the climate change crusade.
I am thus motivated to try to assist in calling attention to the opposing science. In this review, I will present some critical issues addressed in each of six outstanding books which present c the other side of the story d&one that you very likely have not heard. I emphasize that even though I use the term cother side of the story d for convenience, climate is a complex process and thus the other side of the story has, of itself, a number of sides.
Though I am persuaded by the historical record that Nature presides over climate, I will not attempt to convince you of any particular theory. I will offer my own opinions and philosophy but I will try to make that clear. This report is not for publication, nor for gain of any kind.
I simply offer you a research scientist 9s perspective of some the views of credible professional scientists who are persuaded that Nature rules Climate . The Books and their Authors are identified in Section 2. Each of these books presents worthy arguments from past and ongoing studies of natural processes linked to the climate of the Earth.
They are filled with information, and references. I will reference each author each time their words and or Figures are used. In general I will refer to them as c our authors .
d I applaud the great efforts of our authors. Understandably passionate in some cases, I believe they are serious, thoughtful, and respectful of the complexities of the controversy. Perhaps by learning a bit about the other side of the story, you will appreciate that the MMGW crusade has been inappropriately biased and that balance of perspective has been missing.
Most are aware of MMGW claims; few are aware of the reasons for skepticism. 6 As Roy W. Spencer , one our authors, states: cIt is not a question of whether bias exists - - for we are all biased.
It is a question of which bias is the best bias to be biased with. d Please keep that in mind as your read this review. You 9re being informed is important, no matter which side of the issue you may favor!
2. Authors and Books Only Six Books? I have chosen to present highlights of the work of six authors.
Five are accomplished scientists who have strong credentials and records of responsible research. The fifth is a highly regarded investigative reporter. I emphasize that selecting just the six books listed below was difficult for there are other important books that should well have been added.
I can assure you that trying to review their total of 1735 pages within this relatively brief paper was challenge enough. I hope I have done them justice! The Books 1.
Heaven and Earth Ian Plimer 2. Climate Confusion Roy Spencer 3. The Chilling Stars Henrik Svensmark & Nigel Calder 4.
Unstoppable Global Warming S. Fred Singer and Dennis Avery 5. The Maunder Minimum Willie Soon and Steven Yaskell 6.
The Deniers Lawrence Solomon Synopses of Books 1. Heaven and Earth Ian Plimer, a formidable and honored Geologist presents us with a most unusual book. It is both a history story and an encyclopedic reference book filled with information about Geology and natural processes..
It is certainly a tour de force. Plimer lays out the geological evidence, from ancient to recent, of natural variations in global scale climate. In over five hundred pages, few, if any stones are left unturned!
He cites innumerable references to the findings of a host of researchers. These investigators in many instances have devoted their careers to searching for evidence of the natural variability of climate. The author 9s discussions cover everything from plate tectonics to celestial forces.
The book abounds with information which will be new and fascinating to many. It combines prodigious evidence and passionate arguments supportive of beliefs that climate change cannot be avoided. 7 2.
Climate Confusion What better source for discussions of how weather works to determine climates, than a highly respected meteorologist? Certainly Roy Spencer , Senior Meteorologist and Climatologist, is certainly one to read. His book is thoughtfully written to be understood by the lay person, and at the same time presents detailed scientific arguments.
Many will find his thorough discussion of the complexities of weather fascinating. The author leads us through levels of understanding of how weather parameters are interdependent, including the overwhelming importance of the natural links between solar heating, water vapor, evaporation, clouds and precipitation. He explains both the function and the mysteries of clouds and how poorly they are addressed in present-day climate models.
As the other authors, Spencer also underscores concern for balance and debate in seeking understanding. Overall, this book presents a convincing case for the fundamental importance of natural processes dominating weather, and in turn, climate. 3.
The Chilling Stars Henrik Svensmark and Nigel Calder collaborate to provide a most interesting book. Svensmark is a prize winning and pioneering climate scientist, and Calder is a highly regarded science reporter. They provide a speculative yet fascinating scenario for celestial forcing of climate&theories originating with Svensmark, and supported and extended by others.
Interactions proposed between the Sun, Earth, and Stars as orbits vary in time in space will rivet your attention. The authors review a wide variety of exciting evidence suggestive that cosmic particles modify the formation of low level clouds which cover large areas of the Earth. Variations in the cloud cover result in variations of heating and cooling of the surface, thus affecting climate.
The aurthors and many other researchers now investigating this speculative hypothesis believe that energy from very distant decaying stars may be playing a significant role in regulating climate. 4. Unstoppable Global Warming S.
Fred Singer and Dennis Avery provide a very detailed and convincing review of arguments as to why the claims for MMGW are misguided and overblown. Singer, is an internationally regarded climate physicist; Avery, a Senior Fellow of the Hudson Institute, and previously a senior analyst at the Department of State. Together they provide a clearly organized and very pertinent review of climate history.
They provide detailed evidence of a persistent climate cycle of roughly 1500 years. Leading theories are reviewed, supportive of the view that variable solar forcing and cosmic inputs may combine with the weather system to regulate climate. The authors also detail problems associated with measurements and theories claimed to indicate anthropogenic forcing and runaway warming.
In summary they provide a keenly authoritative and convincing set of counter-arguments against the climate crusade. . 8 5.
The Maunder Minimum and the Variable Sun-Earth Connection Willie Soon , Astrophysicist, Harvard-Smithsonian Center and Steven Yaskell , Science author, collaborate in a very thorough discussion of the uniquely quiet epoch of the Sun, The Maunder Minimum of 1620-1720, and the evidence of the widespread climate cooling associated with it. For many years, Willie Soon has advocated investigation of natural processes in the search for understanding climate. He provides a very detailed tutorial about the nature of the Sun, including variabilities which have stimulated many scientific searches for how its energy may be driving changes in the Earth environment.
Although this book does not focus upon the controversies associated with the MMGW crusade, it does provide very reasonable and insightful perspectives of the need for more and better research as well as balance in the scientific process. 6. The Deniers Lawrence Solomon , a highly regarded environmentalist and columnist has been drawn to a new regard for skeptics of the claims of human intervention in climate change.
He could have focused upon the claims of those promoting the MMGW crusade, but instead elected to interview the skeptics. He provides us with results of his interviews with an impressive number of recognized and authoritative scientists who offer alternative explanations for climate variation. Most of